he finishing touches will be put on the College Football Playoff field this weekend when the conference champions are crowned. But the makeup of the inaugural 12-team field still maintains some uncertainty that will be sorted out in the coming days.
At the moment, No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Texas, No. 8 SMU and No. 10 Boise State are the selection committee’s projected four highest-ranked conference champions. No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 9 Indiana and No. 11 Alabama are projected to earn at-large bids.
No. 15 Arizona State is the fifth highest-ranked projected conference champion, which puts the Sun Devils in as the final team in the field. No. 12 Miami and No. 13 Ole Miss are the first teams out.
Interestingly, CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said on ESPN’s rankings release show that teams not playing in their conference championships will not be re-evaluated. That means there’s no world where the Hurricanes or Rebels end up ranked higher than the Crimson Tide. No. 14 South Carolina also does not have a chance to move up relative to other idle teams even if the Tigers team it just beat is crowned the ACC champion.
Below is the projected 12-team bracket, via ESPN:
Here is the CFP selection committee’s top 25, which features three newcomers.
- Oregon – 12-0 (9-0 Big Ten)
- Texas – 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
- Penn State – 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
- Notre Dame – 11-1
- Georgia – 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
- Ohio State – 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
- Tennessee – 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
- SMU – 11-1 (8-0 ACC)
- Indiana – 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
- Boise State – 11-1 (7-0 Mountain West)
- Alabama – 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
- Miami – 10-2 (6-2 ACC)
- Ole Miss – 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
- South Carolina – 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
- Arizona State – 10-2 7-2 (Big 12)
- Iowa State – 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
- Clemson – 9-3 (7-1 ACC)
- BYU – 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
- Missouri – 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
- UNLV – 10-2 (6-1 Mountain West)
- Illinois – 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)
- Syracuse – 9-3 (ACC)
- Colorado – 9-3 (7-2 Big 12)
- Army – 10-1 (8-0 AAC)
- Memphis – 10-2 (6-2 AAC)
With the fourth College Football Playoff rankings out, we identified three teams that have not played up their rankings.
Disagree with our analysis? Let us know in the comments below.
No. 6 Ohio State
AP Rank Coaches Rank Week 14 Week 15
No. 7
No. 8
L vs. Michigan (13-10)
Idle
Two top-10 teams lost last week: Ohio State and Miami. The Hurricanes slid six spots after a back-and-forth, 42-38 road loss at Syracuse, which moved into the top 25 with its win. But the Buckeyes only fell four spots following a 13-10 home defeat to a Michigan team that remains unranked. Even Clemson fell further than Ohio State on the heels of a 17-14 home loss to then-No. 14 South Carolina.
There was no world where a loss to the Wolverines knocked the Buckeyes out of the 12-team field. Ohio State’s résumé — which includes two top-10 wins at Penn State (20-13) and at home over Indiana (38-15), as well as its 32-31 loss at undefeated Oregon — speaks for itself. This is firmly a playoff team, but the Buckeyes were hardly punished for such a poor performance last Saturday in Columbus.
Ohio State is set to host a first-round playoff game as it is ranked ahead of Tennessee, a fellow two-loss team. The Buckeyes are ranked behind the Vols in both the AP poll — where they fell five spots — and the coaches poll — where they dropped six. And as Manuel laid out, Tennessee cannot jump Ohio State with both teams idle this week.
No. 11 Alabama
AP Rank Coaches Rank Week 14 Week 15
No. 11
No. 11
W vs. Auburn (28-14)
Idle
If the current projections hold — mainly SMU beating Clemson on Saturday — Alabama will be in the first 12-team playoff. The Crimson Tide are the highest-ranked three-loss team and are now separated from fellow three-loss SEC teams Ole Miss and South Carolina with Miami wedged between them.
’Bama is a bit of an anomaly with claims to some of the best wins of any team — over Georgia (41-34), South Carolina (27-25) and Missouri (34-0) — and one of the worst losses of any CFP contender as the Tide fell 24-3 at Oklahoma two weeks ago. Of course, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois back in September and Ohio State just lost to Michigan, but those teams not only have fewer losses than Alabama, the margins of both games were closer as well.
The Crimson Tide rose two spots with a 28-14 home win over an Auburn team that is not bowl eligible, while South Carolina only moved up a single spot after beating then-No. 12 Clemson on the road, 17-13. That disparity is inexplicable.
No. 17 Clemson
*ACC Championship in Charlotte, N.C.
AP Rank Coaches Rank Week 14 Week 15
No. 18
No. 17
L vs. South Carolina (17-13)
vs. SMU*
Clemson suffered its third loss last week, but it wasn’t a disqualifying defeat. That’s because the Tigers got the help they needed from Syracuse, which upset Miami, paving the way for Dabo Swinney’s team to return to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. If Clemson beats the Mustangs there, they will be in the 12-team field and potentially knock Alabama out — as long as SMU doesn’t fall below the Crimson Tide.
The Tigers don’t have a win over a team in the CFP rankings. They are also 0-2 against top-25 teams, having lost to Georgia (34-3) and now South Carolina (17-13). Throw in a home loss to unranked Louisville (33-21) and BYU has a legitimate case to be ranked ahead of Clemson with one fewer loss and a road win over SMU (18-15).
Quibbling about the Tigers’ ranking this week won’t matter much if they can beat the Mustangs, though their placement relative to the winner of the Big 12 title (Arizona State or Iowa State) will matter a great deal if they do pull off the upset.