WASHINGTON (AP) — On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials are expected to indicate a slower pace of interest rate cuts for the coming year compared to recent months. This suggests that Americans may experience only modest relief from persistently high borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards.
The Fed is anticipated to announce a reduction of a quarter-point in its benchmark rate, lowering it from approximately 4.6% to around 4.3%. This follows a larger half-point rate cut in September and a quarter-point cut in November.
Wednesday’s meeting could signal a transition to a new phase in the Fed’s policy approach. Instead of implementing a rate cut at each meeting, the Fed is now more likely to reduce rates at every other meeting, at most. Policymakers may indicate that they foresee reducing their key rate only two or three times in 2025, a decrease from the four cuts previously projected three months ago.
To date, the Federal Reserve has justified its actions by referring to them as a “recalibration” of the ultra-high interest rates that were initially implemented to combat the four-decade high inflation observed in 2022. With inflation now significantly reduced — standing at 2.3% in October according to the Fed’s preferred measure, down from a peak of 7.2% in June 2022 — many Fed officials contend that maintaining such high interest rates is unnecessary.
However, inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target in recent months, while the economy continues to exhibit robust growth. The government’s latest monthly retail sales report, released on Tuesday, indicates that Americans, especially those with higher incomes, are still spending liberally. According to some analysts, these trends suggest that additional rate cuts could overly stimulate the economy, thereby sustaining elevated inflation levels.
Additionally, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed various tax cuts, including reductions on Social Security benefits, tipped income, and overtime income, along with a reduction in regulations. These initiatives could potentially stimulate economic growth. However, Trump has also indicated plans to impose a range of tariffs and pursue mass deportations of migrants, which could lead to increased inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have stated that they cannot fully evaluate the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the economy or their interest rate decisions until more specifics are provided and the likelihood of these proposals being implemented becomes clearer. For now, the presidential election’s outcome has primarily increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.
It seems unlikely that Americans will experience significantly lower borrowing costs in the near future. According to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.6% last week, a decrease from the peak of 7.8% reached in October 2023. However, the approximately 3% mortgage rates that were prevalent for nearly a decade before the pandemic are not expected to return anytime soon.
Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that they are decelerating their rate reductions as their benchmark rate approaches a “neutral” level — a rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
“Growth is definitely stronger than we anticipated, and inflation is slightly higher,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated recently. “The good news is, we can afford to be a little more cautious as we aim to achieve a neutral stance.”
Central banks worldwide are following suit in cutting their benchmark rates. Recently, the European Central Bank reduced its key rate for the fourth time this year, bringing it down to 3% from 3.25%. This move comes as inflation in the 20 euro-using countries has decreased significantly, dropping to 2.3% from its peak of 10.6% in late 2022.
Are you aiming for the C-suite? Discover how Fortune 500 CEOs navigated unexpected challenges to reach the top and gain leadership insights that can enhance your decision-making skills quickly. Subscribe to “Next to Lead,” our weekly newsletter curated by editor Ruth Umoh.