The pet project of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Maya Train tourist line, has faced significant challenges and criticism. With a potential cost of up to $30 billion, the project is only halfway completed with just 2 1/2 months left in López Obrador’s term. Furthermore, the train has had a detrimental impact on the environment.
However, the most damning critique of the Maya Train comes from the low ridership figures on the currently operational sections. According to government data released on Monday, only around 1,200 people per day utilize the train. Most passengers only travel short distances between Merida and Cancun or the nearby city of Campeche. The original hope was that tourists would use the train to explore the entire 950-mile route and visit the various Mayan archaeological sites scattered across the Yucatan Peninsula.
In the first six months of operation, the round-trip route from Cancun to the famous Mayan temple complex of Palenque has seen an average of only 100 passengers per day in each direction. This low volume of passengers could easily be accommodated by just one or two buses per day at a much lower cost.
Initially, the government had promised that the train would transport between 22,000 and 37,000 people daily. However, the current ridership is only about 3-5% of that target, even with three out of the four most popular stations – Cancun, Merida, Palenque, and Campeche – already in service.
It should be noted that the rail line connecting Cancun and the resorts of Playa del Carmen and Tulum, known as the Riviera Maya, is still under construction. Currently, only 17 trains are in operation, with the potential for three times that number to be added in the future.
Critics argue that there is little evidence to suggest that the Cancun-Tulum line will make the project profitable, as it does not run particularly close to any of the resort towns it is intended to serve.
Originally, the Cancun-Tulum railway was planned to be built on an elevated line along the coastal highway, where most hotels are located. However, due to technical difficulties, the government decided to change the route. They opted for a 68-mile (110-kilometer) path through the jungle, moving the tracks about 4½ miles (7 kilometers) inland.
As a result, instead of easily hopping on one of the micro-buses that constantly travel along the coastal highway, tourists and resort workers would now have to take a taxi to the train station, wait for one of the limited daily trains, and then take another taxi to reach their resorts once they arrive at their destination.
Jose “Pepe” Urbina, a local diver who opposes the train, highlights the predictability of the project’s uselessness. He points out that the train doesn’t actually go anywhere that couldn’t already be reached by the highway. Urbina also expresses concern about the train’s steel pilings causing damage to the caverns he has been exploring for decades.
Urbina argued that these rail lines are not beneficial for workers, students, or for daily use.
However, one positive outcome of the railway project is the creation of jobs. Manuel Merino, the governor of Tabasco, stated that the Maya Train has generated 20,000 direct or indirect jobs in his state, leading to a 40% decrease in unemployment rates.
Merino believes that this development will significantly contribute to the growth of the historically impoverished and underdeveloped southern region of Mexico. Nonetheless, most of these jobs will be temporary as they are related to the construction phase, and federal officials are exploring ways to make the railway financially sustainable.
One proposed solution is the utilization of the tracks for freight trains. However, due to the limited industry in the area, the demand for freight services is also restricted.
The government’s intentions regarding the profitability of the railway remain unclear. López Obrador had made the decision to construct it even before conducting feasibility studies. A government study conducted in 2019 estimated the cost of the railway at $8.5 billion, with expected benefits of approximately $10.5 billion.
However, these projected benefits included various intangible factors, such as reduced highway traffic, faster travel times, and increased tourism revenue, which either did not materialize or were not directly related to the train.
According to Alfredo Coutiño, Director of Moody’s Analytics, cost overruns are common in projects of this nature. He noted that, as anticipated, the Maya Train project was not completed as originally planned and ended up costing much more than the initial budget.
The lingering question remains whether this project will yield profitability in the medium term. This hinges on its anticipated full functionality, operating at maximum capacity, and being managed as a government endeavor rather than a private enterprise.