A massive day of basketball wraps up in Hawaii when a talented North Carolina Tar Heels squad faces off against the undefeated and underrated Dayton Flyers. My North Carolina vs. Dayton predictions break down the matchup, particularly as it pertains to Tar Heels sophomore Elliot Cadeau. Read more in my college basketball picks for Monday, Novemeber 25 below. Dayton vs North Carolina prediction My best bet Elliot Cadeau Over 14.5 points (-105 at bet365) My analysis When looking at this game, what jumps off the page is the transition defense of one team compared to the transition offense of the other. It should come as no surprise that the North Carolina Tar Heels are yet again on track to be one of the best transition offenses in the country, arriving at this game ranking in the Top 10% of basketball in such rankings. Sure, it’s early, and the sample is small, but the historical traits of a team with mostly their integral pieces still in place suggest this should continue. That’s a problem for the Dayton Flyers, and there are multiple ways to target it; I’m choosing the Over on sophomore Elliot Cadeau’s scoring. Cadeau has started to build his scoring over the last few games. Against American, he had his best game of the season with 18 points and eight assists, and he followed that up. UNC arrived in Hawaii a bit early to get used to the time change and environment while getting in a game against Hawaii. Cadeau flourished there, too, with 17 points and four assists. Each of these teams has horrific transition defenses, so maybe you’re sensing a theme. Dayton is in the Bottom 40% of basketball in transition defense, allowing 1.22 points per possession on such opportunities. It would likely be worse if Anthony Grant teams weren’t so good at transition denial, only giving such chances at a 14% clip. It would also be worse if it had played a good team so far this season. That denial aspect plays a part, but the Heels are so good at forcing their style on others that I expect them to at least find some of those opportunities. Beyond that, though, there are also openings in the halfcourt for Cadeau. Dayton is solid defensively, but they’ve struggled to defend drives at the rim compared to what they’ve usually been. That’s another strong point of Cadeau’s game. As someone high on Cadeau since he arrived at UNC, I won’t pass up the chance to back him when he appears to be playing at his highest level. I made this line 15.5 and feel great about it as long as we see over 70 possessions.
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